Since the election of President Joe Biden, Republicans have set their sights on the 2022 midterm with good reason: Midterm elections rarely tend to be good for the party that controls the presidency.
However, this November, before next year ppiece of resistance, comes an often overlooked – but far from irrelevant – litmus test for both sides: the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. As they take place every four years in the years immediately following the presidential election, they often serve as early indicators in determining America’s political climate ahead of the next year’s midterm.
The race in New Jersey, a state that has been a Democratic bulwark for years, is dry and dry enough: incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat among the nation’s most draconian COVID policy hawks, is expected to defeat GOP candidate Jack. Ciattarelli in a blast.
On the contrary, the race in Virginia looks like it promises to be something a little more interesting.
The contest, which pits former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe (governors are legally prohibited from serving consecutive terms in Virginia) against Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin, found itself unexpectedly competitive.
Several surveys have been conducted so far that measure the state of the race, including one by the GOP-aligned Trafalgar Group, a polling organization whose data ranked among the most accurate in projection of victory margins in the 2020 presidential election. Trafalgar found Youngkin behind McAuliffe by 2% – other pollsters reported similar results, with the former governor’s lead ranging from 2-5%.
This is certainly compelling, as Virginia has catapulted to the left in recent years. Apparently overnight, the growth and socioeconomic evolution of the Washington suburbs transformed a state that went to Bush by eight percent in 2004 into a state that went to Biden by more than ten percent in 2020.
In comparison, incumbent Governor Ralph Northam won the 2017 election by 8.9%, however, it should be noted that Northam’s polls in the previous months were actually closer by McAuliffe.
That said, it’s pretty safe to assume that a GOP win in any race across the state would almost certainly be seen as an upheaval in today’s Old Dominion.
In terms of fundraising, however, McAuliffe is overtaking Youngkin. McAuliffe raised $ 7.5 million during the month of June, compared to $ 3.8 million raised by Youngkin – not unlike the fundraising contrast that was seen between Northam and Gillespie later in the 2017 cycle. Fundraising must be taken with a grain of salt, however, as even the candidates with the most insurmountable lead in fundraising suffered a resounding defeat at the polls: the recent Senate contests between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz and Jaime Harrison and Lindsey Graham immediately comes to mind.
A lot can transpire between now and November, but you should keep an eye on whether Youngkin’s campaign continues to gain momentum ahead of the start, as things could obviously get very interesting very quickly.
[ https://www.rocetoday.com/the-blue-state-republican/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-blue-state-republican https://d26toa8f6ahusa.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/30214746/a-quiet-place-part-2-bigs-16.pdf