Screenshots from social media videos showing Russian military equipment in motion as part of the massive military build-up effort underway near the Ukrainian borders and within the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Left to right: 1. Krasnodar Krai, Russia, April 15, 2021 (source), 2. Occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, 16 April 2021 (source); 3. Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, April 15, 2021 (source).
2021/04/17 – 13:20 •
Russia, Russian aggression
Putin doesn’t just want a little more territory in Ukraine, says Piontkovsky. He wants to control all of Ukraine and the Ukrainians will fight to prevent it. And he doesn’t want just a small deal with Washington, but a new Yalta president something Joe biden will never consent.
So, if Putin meant what he has done so far as a form of blackmail, he found himself in a dead end,
“Now he must either end the insane hysteria and surrender first, thereby losing the chicken game he launched, or escalate, something that will be suicidal for the regime.”
According to Piontkovsky, the latter is more likely. Indeed, he says, not only Putin and his entourage are inclined in that direction, this one “The fatal decision has already been made [as] I’m so under the influence of imperial madness “ and, acting as “Brzezinski’s best students”, suppose they must have Ukraine if Russia is to be an empire.
The Ukrainians will resist, and even the United States has no choice but to resist because if they were to back down now, that would pave the way for “The complete dismantling of the security system in Europe” is “Putin would be able to do what he wants on that continent”, including relocation to sixteen Baltic countries.
Furthermore, if the United States withdraws from Ukraine, its obvious weakness compared to Putin would cost him worldwide support. And because of all these reasons, the United States will not back down, but will not only provide Ukraine with weapons and advisers, but will inflict real damage on Russia. “Mainly of an economic nature.”
If Putin openly invades Ukraine, some economic sanctions will not follow. “But total economic war” Piontkovsky says. Russia will lose access to SWIFT, face an oil embargo and see Western countries move to sixteen “” The Russian trillion “” Russian money now in western banks and western real estate.
These moves will affect the Russian elite so much that they will no longer be willing to follow Putin unconditionally. The Kremlin leader may think he has complete control of his home, but these pressures will prove to him and the world that he is not. Of course, the mediocrities immediately around him will support him, but much further afield will not.
Even before a shot is fired, the Russian economy is faltering, the analyst continues. The ruble exchange rate is collapsing. But if the West wages an economic war against Russia, that country will have to face “An economic catastrophe that the regime will not survive”. Those who are intoxicated by Russian imperialism may think otherwise, but they are wrong.
Putin probably thinks that if he starts an invasion, he can escape these dire consequences thanks to the mediation of people like the French president. Emmanuel Macron that it will try to end the fighting through negotiations, which will require more concessions from Ukraine and an agreement from the West to lift rather than impose more sanctions.
There are probably enough people in Western capitals who will accept this, but the leaders of the key countries now, the United States and Turkey, are not among them. As a result, Putin has almost certainly made another miscalculation that will lead him to disaster.
Tags: military upgrade, Putin, Russian-Ukrainian war (2014-present)