2021/04/19 – 17:53 •
Edited by: AN
But a collective consideration of them shows that what Putin is about is not just subordinating Ukraine to his will, but forcing the West to recognize its power and right to do so, a recognition that would represent a much greater victory. for the Kremlin leader because it would be. destroy the current rules of the international system and even the role of the West in it.
And ultimately this means that the continued existence of the Putin regime and the international system are mutually exclusive, either one will be successful or the other, and so what may seem like just one problem among many is actually an issue. existential for both the Kremlin and the West.
Putin may go to war in Ukraine or he may decide he has already “won without war” now that US President Joe Biden has agreed to talk to him about the deals, Skobov says. Or, alternatively, he may decide that having forced the Western leader to the negotiating table, now is the time to double down and push even harder militarily.
What needs to be recognized in the current situation is that it is “impossible in principle” to reach any serious compromise between Ukraine’s survival as an independent state within the international system and Putin’s desire to subordinate it to a Russian imperial system. which will give Moscow the final say on all decisions in Kiev.
And what is equally important for the West to recognize is that Putin not only wants to achieve that subordination of Ukraine, but he wants to force the rest of the world and especially the West to recognize that he has the power and the right to do so and he will. . continue on that path unless and until someone stops him.
In this, says Skobov,
… It is a mistake to think that Putin and his entourage are making risk-benefit calculations like those of Western capitals.
Yes, they engage in an “imitation” of this, but their drive towards empire and a world where they don’t have to live by rules other than those they regularly establish overwhelms such considerations.
Putin’s attention “on the destruction of the world legal order derives from the very character of the new ruling class that has taken shape in post-totalitarian Russia”, says the analyst. It reflects the values of the streets and construction sites of Leningrad / St Petersburg from which Putin and his main advisers come.
Due to globalization, it was inevitable that their values that everything they wanted to do was lawful would collide with a world based on the principle that the law and not just brute force determines what can be done.
Acting as if this fundamental contradiction did not exist benefits Putin and his team.
This is because it means that the West tries to solve every single problem in isolation and does not see that the Kremlin’s moves in Ukraine and elsewhere are part of a larger plan designed to sow chaos and disorder so that by an act of will, Moscow may gain power despite its very small position in the world.
Sometimes addressing biased questions will delay Putin’s use of force, but will just postpone them and not put an end to them.
No deal that leaves Putin’s regime in place will change the fundamental goals and calculations of its leader or those who carry out his orders, says Skobov.
In such a situation, delaying the start of a battle is only appropriate if opponents of the illegal Moscow regime use the time to bolster their forces in order to be able to oust that regime. Otherwise, Putin with the salami tactic will pocket one victory after another, and the West will find itself marginalized and defeated.
Edited by: AN
Tags: criminalization of the Russian state, Putin’s confrontation with the West, Russian aggression, Russian geopolitical strategy, Russian imperialism, Russian neo-colonialism, Russian strategy, Russo-Ukrainian war (2014-present)